The TeamPurpleMN Political Prediction Extravaganza

Here we are in the last two weeks before election day.  We here at TeamPurple watch election coverage; we watch A LOT of election coverage.  So with two weeks left we thought we would offer our best guesses of what to expect on election night this year, and even venture some guesses of 2020.

The two people here offering our best guesses are “Seneca” and “RagingBull,” so without further ado…

  1.  How many seats will the Democrats win in the House?
    • Seneca:  So after looking at all the different sites (538.com, RCP, etc), they say anywhere between 19-61 seats.  With the energy and the focus, I am going to go and split the middle and say 40-45 seats.
    • RagingBull:  I think Dems win 45 seats, and lose between 3-4 overall.  I think it will be called pretty early that Dems will retake the House.
  2. Who wins the following Senate Seats:
    • Missouri
      • Seneca:  I am going to give it to the woman incumbent in the year of the woman.  McCaskill wins.
      • RagingBull: I actually don’t think this one will be decided on election night.  It’s going to go well into the second day and maybe a recount, but I think McCaskill ekes out another term.  Barely.
    • Minnesota
      • Seneca:  Tina Smith, for sure. Klobuchar in a walk.
      • RagingBull:  Housley ran a decent campaign, but this isn’t a GOP year and Tina Smith didn’t make any mistakes.  Smith wins by a good 5-7 points.  Klobuchar should get 65-70% of the vote.
    • North Dakota
      • Seneca:  It looks like Heitkamp loses this one.
      • RagingBull:  I think the polls are harder on Heitkamp than the election night vote will be, but I still think she ends up short.
    • Indiana
      • Seneca:  Donnelly wins a close one.
      • RagingBull:  Donnelly looked like he was in trouble earlier this cycle, but he’s run a perfect campaign and never seemed down.  I think he wins solidly in Indiana.
    • Texas
      • Seneca:  I want to go out on a limb and say Beto can do it, but in the end, it’s still Texas.
      • RagingBull:  In the most interesting Senate race, Beto O’Rourke has run an ideal, inspiring campaign, and absolutely nobody likes Ted Cruz.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Beto won, but this is still Texas, and I think Cruz wins to everyone else in America’s detriment.
    • Arizona
      • Seneca:  Synema has a good reputation and run a good campaign.  I don’t think McSally was as good as a candidate as the GOP thought she could be.
      • RagingBull:  McSally has been hitting Synema hard the last few weeks with some ridiculous statements she said as an activist during the early days of the Iraq War.  Synema had been ahead in polls, but the gap has narrowed and some now show her behind.  Hard to say, but I like her chances more than I like Beto’s.
    • Montana
      • Seneca: Tester.
      • RagingBull:  Tester is going to win.  I think it’s going to surprise by how much he is going to win.
    • Florida
      • Seneca:  Nelson. And I think the ballot initiative passes too.
      • RagingBull:  Bill Nelson ekes a race out against Rick Scott, due to depressed turnout in the GOP panhandle due to the hurricane.
    • Tennessee
      • Seneca:  Bredesen wins. Polling is tight but the energy is on his side.  Good candidate.
      • RagingBull:  Had someone else besides Marsha Blackburn won, the GOP could have kept this seat.  By choosing a more doctrinaire republican, they are going to lose it to Bredesen, who is a popular, practical politician.
    • Nevada
      • Seneca:  I think dems underestimated Heller, but this is going to be one of the ones we wait until day 2 to see who wins.  I think Rosen ends up winning, but much closer than people think.
      • RagingBull:  Dean Heller was in trouble being a senator from Hillary territory up for election.  He’s made a game of it, but its a Dem year, and Nevada is trending the wrong way for him.  Rosen wins in a walk.
  1.  Which Governors do you think will lose on Election Night?
    • Seneca:  I think Dems win Florida and Wisconsin.  Those are the two big jewels.  They’ll clean up in the midwest– Michigan, Ohio, etc.
    • RagingBull:  Walker in Wisconsin is going to lose badly.  I really believe that this is where Dems are going to make their biggest surprises– at the governor and state legislative level.  Iowa, IL, MI, OH, and ME will all turn blue too.
  2. What will be the biggest surprise on Election Night?
    • Seneca:  I think the polling is underestimating dem turnout.  People are still burned from 2016 and using that model, when it probably no longer applies.
    • RagingBull:  The gender gap is going to be huge.  Not only will it be by percentage, it will be by volume too.  Women are pissed, and they are going to demonstrate their electoral force en masse this election.  Expect the percentage of women going for dems going 2:1 while men break evenly.  Another big surprise will be dems winning at the state level in Oklahoma and other places typically hardcore red.
  3. In Minnesota, what will be the breakdown of the state assembly following the Election?
    • Seneca:  Dems expand their House advantage.
    • RagingBull:  Dems will improve their margins in the state House, but they miss their opportunity to take the Senate.
  4. What will the margin be for the Minnesota Governor’s race?
    • Seneca:  It should be about 11 points.
    • RagingBull:  Tim Walz is going to win, and don’t be surprised if it is over 60/40%.
  5. Now, onto 2020 speculation…who will be the first to announce they are running for President?
    • Seneca:  Elizabeth Warren.  She would do it now if she could.
    • RagingBull:  Elizabeth Warren has all but already announced.  She’ll be the first out of the gate.
  6. Will Trump get a primary challenge?
    • Seneca:  Yes, it might be someone we haven’t thought of yet.  It won’t be Sasse, but Kasich for sure and an outside chance Nikki Haley runs.
    • RagingBull:  I never thought he wanted to run seriously in the first place, but he’s wrapped the party around his finger.  There’ll be no serious challenge.
  7.  Who will be the Democratic Nominee in 2020?
    1. Seneca:  I’m going to say Cory Booker.
    2. RagingBull:  People will rally around Joe Biden out of stability and competence.  He’ll win it pretty early.
  8. Will Trump win in 2020?
    1. Seneca:  No.
    2. RagingBull:  No chance in hell.

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